The chance to play Midwest No. 1 seed Purdue and big man Zach Edey will be on the line when the Montana State Bobcats and Grambling State Tigers collide in a 2024 First Four game on Wednesday at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Both the Bobcats and Tigers are looking to earn the first NCAA Tournament win in program history. Montana State (23-11) earned the Big Sky’s automatic berth after sweeping through the conference tournament as the No. 5 seed. Meanwhile Grambling (20-14) won both the regular season and tournament titles in the SWAC.
Tipoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The Bobcats are favored by 4.5 points in the latest Montana State vs. Grambling State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 134.5. Before making any Grambling State vs. Montana State picks or First Four predictions, you need to check out the college basketball analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Montana State vs. Grambling State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Grambling State vs. Montana State:
Montana State vs. Grambling State spread: Bobcats -4.5
Montana State vs. Grambling State over/under: 134.5 points
Montana State vs. Grambling State money line: Bobcats -218, Tigers +178
MT ST: Bobcats rank 32nd in the country in 3-point field goal percentage (36.7)
GRAMB: Tigers rank second in the SWAC in scoring defense (69.0 points per game)
Montana State vs. Grambling State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Montana State can cover
Montana State has been excellent at forcing turnovers all season. Led by Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Robert Ford III, the Bobcats have 280 steals this season — the third most in a season in program history. They also led the conference in both steals per game (8.2) and turnovers forced per game (13.6).
In addition, Tyler Patterson enters Wednesday’s game hot from behind the 3-point arc. The 6-foot-8 junior guard from Snoqualmie, Wash., is 13-for-30 (43.3%) on 3-pointers over his last five games. He is just the fourth player in program history to reach 200 3-pointers in his career. See whom to back at SportsLine.
Why Grambling State can cover
Grambling is a balanced-scoring team offensively. The Tigers have six players averaging at least 7.6 points a game, led by all-SWAC first team guard Kintavious Dozier, who scores 13.1 points per game. Dozier, a junior college transfer, gets almost half of his shots around the rim and averages 1.05 points per shot around the rim.
In addition, Tra’Michael Moton is playing the best basketball of his career. The fifth-year guard from Shreveport, La., is averaging a career-high 11.8 points a game thanks to a career-best 37.1% shooting on 3-pointers. Two games ago, in the SWAC Tournament semifinal win over Bethune-Cookman, Moton scored a career-high-tying 26 points on 6-of-7 shooting from beyond the arc. See whom to back at SportsLine.
How to make Montana State vs. Grambling State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 141 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.