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It is time once again to overthink your picks and dive into the minutiae on your way to the bracket that best fulfills your soul. I understand it. I get it. I’m with you.

And that’s why I write this story every year.

The best time of the year on the sports calendar is here because the best sporting event in the history of mankind (yes, I’m going there) is about to begin in earnest on Thursday. This is a DEEP goodie bag of stats, nuggets, trends, data, all the numbers to consider before you finalize those picks.

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As always, in addition to my own research, all additional info is provided by CBS Sports’ research team, the NCAA, KenPom.com, ESPN Stats & Info, Elias Sports, Sports Reference and BartTorvik.com. My thanks to all for helping me build this out and get it under one roof. Let’s get right to it. Here are the statistics, facts and history to know about the 2024 men’s NCAA Tournament.

Highest-scoring team: Alabama (90.8 points per game)
Lowest-scoring team: Virginia (62.9 points per game)
Fastest team: Western Kentucky (75.4 possessions per game)
Slowest team: Wagner (62.6 possessions per game)
Best free-throw shooting team: Clemson (79.0%)
Worst free-throw shooting team: Mississippi State (67.2%)
Best 3-point shooting team: Kentucky (41.2%)
Worst 3-point shooting team: Texas A&M (28.4%)
Most experienced team(s): TCU (3.39 average seasons)
Least experienced team: Wagner (1.00 average seasons)
Tallest team: Washington State (average height 79.3 inches)
Smallest team: Samford (75.7 inches)
Deepest bench: Samford (44.8% of minutes played)
Thinnest bench: Creighton (19.6%)
Most efficient offenses, adjusted points scored per 100 possessions:

Connecticut (126.5)
Illinois (125.5)
Alabama (125.5)
Purdue (125.0)
getty-dan-hurley-tristen-newton-uconn.jpg
Dan Hurley’s Huskies are an absolute wagon. Getty Images
Most efficient defenses, adjusted points allowed per 100 possessions:

Iowa State (87.2)
Houston (87.2)
Tennessee (91.1)
Auburn (91.7)
Over the years, teams that have won it all have checked a lot of boxes. You can make the stats tell you a lot of things you want to hear. But if you’ve got a pre-tournament top-30 per-possession D and a guard/wing that’s safely projected to be drafted, you’ve got a solid shot. Only a handful of teams meet this criteria each year. Last year, UConn applied (Jordan Hawkins was the draftee-in-waiting) and won it all. Here are the teams and their defensive rankings at KenPom.

Tennessee: 3rd (Dalton Knecht)
Kansas: 10th (Johnny Furphy)
Connecticut: 12th (Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer)
Marquette: 20th (Tyler Kolek)
Creighton: 24th (Trey Alexander)
Duke: 26th (Jared McCain)
Best scorer: Purdue’s Zach Edey (24.4 points per game)
Best rebounder: Akron’s Enrique Freeman (12.9 boards per game)
Best assist man: Marquette’s Tyler Kolek (7.6 dimes per game)
Best 2-point shooter: Stetson’s Aubin Gateretse (73.8%)
Best 3-point shooter: Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard (52.5%)
Best foul shooter: Clemson’s Joe Girard III (95.6%)
Best thief: McNeese’s Shahada Wells (3.0 steals per game)
Best shot-blocker: Creighton’s Ryan Kalkbrenner (3.0 per game)
NCAA Basketball: Xavier at Marquette
Marquette’s Tyler Kolek is coming off an oblique injury — and is among the best PGs in the sport. USATSI
85: This is the 85th NCAA Tournament. Thirty-seven programs have won a national title dating to 1939, when Oregon won its only championship. Oregon is the only team from that first Final Four in this year’s field; Ohio State, Oklahoma and Villanova all missed out for a second straight season.

3,636: There have been 3,636 NCAAT games held, dating back to ’39.

0: The Houston Cougars, Purdue Boilermakers, Iowa State Cyclones and Tennessee Volunteers, are the best-seeded teams in the field with zero national titles.

18: This is UNC’s 18th No. 1 seed, most in history.

62: This is Kentucky’s 62nd tournament, most in history.

32.4%: The percentage of brackets at CBS Sports that have Connecticut winning it all. That’s a LOT. Second is Purdue at 12.3%, Houston is third at 11.9%.

27.9: Houston’s percentage to win the title, according to BartTorvik.com. Yes, ahead of UConn (which is in the toughest region). Houston was also the highest last year — at 17.6% pre-tournament. The top five for this year: UConn (15.9%), Purdue (12.4%), Iowa State (7.9%), Arizona (7.3%).

1: Only three times has the No. 1 overall seed won the NCAA Tournament since the selection committee began ranking the No. 1 in 2004: Florida (2007), Kentucky (2012) and Louisville (2013). The No. 1 overall seed has also lost in the second round thrice — and the first round once. (UMBC forever.) Connecticut is this year’s No. 1 overall seed, its first in school history.

14: Purdue has 14 wins against teams in the field, the most of all dancers. Tennessee and Alabama lead the field with 18 games played vs. tournament teams. Twelve schools with no wins against 2024 tournament teams: Charleston, Grambling State, Howard, Longwood, Montana State, Morehead State, Oakland, Saint Peter’s, Samford, Stetson, Wagner, Western Kentucky.

15: Houston leads the field with 15 victories against top-50 KenPom teams. Connecticut and Purdue have 12 apiece.

6: Every champion since 2004 has been ranked in the top 12 of the Week 6 AP Top 25. Those 12 teams (seeds included) from this season, ranked in order back in Week 6, are: Arizona (2), Kansas (4), Purdue (1), Houston (1), UConn (1), Baylor (1), Marquette (2), Creighton (3), North Carolina (1), Gonzaga (5), Oklahoma (out), Tennessee (2).

0: Infamously, no team has lost its first conference tournament game and then won a national title. This year, you should be suspicious of Alabama, Creighton, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Duke. They are the teams seeded fourth or better that were one-and-done in their league tourneys. (Additionally, every national champion since 1985 has made it minimally to the semifinals of their league tournament, if their league staged a tournament the year they won it all.)

13 of 25: In the past 25 tournaments, 13 national champions won their conference tournament. Since 1985, 16 national champions have won their league tournaments. There is no pattern at play here.

31 and 3: UConn has the most wins (31) vs. Division I competition. UConn, James Madison and McNeese have the fewest losses (3).

17: Montana State’s 17 losses are the most in the field.

47: It’s been 47 years since Duquesne last made the NCAAs, which ends the longest drought among teams in this year’s Dance. Among Big Six teams in the field, the school with the longest drought since its last NCAA Tournament is Washington State (2008). Additionally, Boise State has been D-I since ’70 and never won a tournament game. This is its 10th tournament.

8-0: It’s New Mexico that owns the best neutral-court record entering this tournament at 8-0. To think, the committee would’ve left the Lobos out if they finished 7-1. Nuts. UConn is right behind UNM at 7-0.

2/20: Arizona faced the fewest Quad 4 teams of all (2). Houston played 20 Quad 1 foes and went 16-4 in those games.

-26.5: UConn’s line vs. Stetson is the biggest of the first round. Here’s the line for every Thursday/Friday game.

Tommy Lloyd has two NCAA wins in two seasons with the Wildcats. USATSI

7: Coaches with top-four seeds to never have made a Final Four as a coach. Last year I said one guy in that spot would get there and he did (Dan Hurley). I think it happens again in 2024.

9 for 13: In nine of the past 13 NCAA Tournaments, at least one 13-seed has defeated a No. 4. The most popular 13-over-4 pick at CBS Sports’ Bracket Games: Samford over Kansas (16.1%).

143-1: No. 1 seeds are 150-2 all time vs. 16s. The No. 2s are 142-10 against 15s.

6 or fewer: It took UMBC 33 years to become the first No. 16 seed to win, then only five years for Fairleigh Dickinson to etch its name in history. Seven other times a No. 16 seed has finished a game within six points or fewer but lost. Those results were: 2013 Southern vs. Gonzaga (64-58); 1996 Western Carolina vs. Purdue (73-71); 1990 Murray State vs. Michigan State (75-71 in OT); 1989 McNeese State vs. Illinois (77-71); 1989 East Tennessee State vs. Oklahoma (72-71); 1989 Princeton vs. Georgetown (50-49); and 1985 Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Michigan (59-55).

5 or lower: This is a 🚨🚨🚨 for your bracket picks: Every NCAA Tournament since 2013 has had a No. 5 seed or lower reach the Final Four. I took Saint Mary’s to get to Phoenix.

2016: The last time all four 1-seeds reached the Elite Eight. Before that, it was 2009.

2009/2019: The most recent times a conference had as many as three No. 1 seeds. It was the Big East; Pitt, UConn and Louisville all did in ’09. The ACC (Virginia, Duke, UNC) in2 019. This year, top seeds hail from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten and Big 12.

2008: Famously, the only time all four No. 1s reached the Final Four. But since 2010, only 16 of the 48 Final Four appearances have come from No. 1 seeds. Zero made it in 2023, joining 2006 and 2011 as the only three Final Fours without any 1s.

1-4 is a no-no: You almost never wanna go all chalk at the top in the first round. In 2017, all No. 1s 2s, 3s and 4s won their first-round game. Prior to that, the last time that happened was 2007. It’s happened just six times since 1985.

60 vs. 57: No. 1 seeds have made the Final Four 60 times. That’s narrowly more than the combined Final Four showings of Nos. 4-16 since seeding began (57).

4 or more since ’91: Every NCAA champion since 1991 has come from a league with at least four NCAA bids in the field. Conspicuously, the Big East only sent three teams this season.

No. 2: Only two times in the past 26 NCAA Tournaments have all four 2-seeds made the Sweet 16. It’s happened just five times since 1985: ’89, ’95, ’96, ’09, ’19. Pick at least one No. 2 to lose early. It’s probably going to happen. Marquette and Arizona got got in 2023.

12: Every seed, from No. 1 to No. 11, has made a Final Four. When does someone from the 12-line do it? This year the options are, again, exclusively mid-major: Grand Canyon, James Madison, McNeese, UAB.

James Madison coach Mark Byington has guided his team to 31 wins. The Dukes are a very trendy upset pick. Getty Images
7: Though No. 7/10 games feel a bit like No. 8/9 games, they’re not. The 10s have never swept the 7s, with the exception of one year (1999). No. 8 seeds are 74-78 vs. No. 9 seeds all time. Here is every first round head-to-head since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

*2021 matchup between Oregon (7) and VCU (10) was a no contest due to COVID

27-25: No. 11s are 27-25 in the first round since 2010.

3 > 6: No. 3s have been unusually good against 6-seeds going back to 2005, owning a 22-5 record in those second round games. (H/T ESPN)

10 > 8+9: You’re more likely to make the Sweet 16 as a 10-seed than as either an 8 or 9. No. 10s are 19-35 vs. No. 2 seeds, while 8-seeds are 16-59 and 9s are 6-69 vs. top seeds. Breaking down the math further: No. 10 seeds historically have a 15.8% chance of making the Sweet 16, while the combined chances for No. 8s and No. 9s is identical: 15.8%. Seeding matters. A No. 7 seed has made it to the Sweet 16 29 times since 1985. Contrast that to a No. 8, which has only gotten there 15 times.

10-12: In the past 12 NCAA Tournaments, teams seeded No. 5 or No. 6 that enter the tourney being ranked outside the top 30 at KenPom have a 10-12 record. Clemson and South Carolina fall into this category this year.

67.1-to-1: Per bracketodds.com’s calculator, those are the chances we’ll have four No. 1 seeds reach the 2024 Final Four. If you go to all No. 2s, it’s 375.1-to-1. Two 1s and two 2s is 25.7-to-1.

9,223,372,036,854,775,808: The number of different possible bracket outcomes. Wondering how to pronounce that number? I got you. That would be nine quintillion, two hundred twenty-three quadrillion, three hundred seventy-two trillion, thirty-six billion, eight hundred fifty-four million, seven hundred seventy-five thousand, eight hundred eight. It’s much larger than the number of possible outcomes seen by Doctor Strange in Avengers: Infinity War.

8: The Big 12 and SEC’s eight bids lead all conferences. The SEC has eight bids for a second straight year.

37: St. John’s, 26th at KenPom, is the highest team in that metric to not make the tournament.

28/54: Indiana State’s No. 28 NET ranking makes it the highest-rated team to not make the field — and the highest-rated in the six-year history of the NET. Virginia’s 54 ranking was the lowest of any at-large in this year’s field. Rutgers’ 77 ranking is 2022 is the record holder.

22 of 24: A top-three seed has won the national title 22 of the past 24 tournaments. The exceptions: 2014 UConn (7) and 2023 UConn (4).

7: In 11 of the past 12 tournaments, a 7-seed or worse has cracked the Elite Eight. Who’s doing it this year?

1-34: The Big South has existed since 1986. It’s 1-36 all time in the NCAA Tournament. The only win? Winthrop back in 2007. This year’s candidate is 16th-seeded Longwood, which has the joy of facing No. 1 Houston in the South.

8 for 16: Gonzaga’s made the Sweet 16 in eight straight tournaments. No other team has a streak longer than four. The all-time record is 14 (UCLA 1967-80).

10: The number of coaches who are making their NCAA Tournament debuts. The youngest is … a tie! Wagner’s Donald Copeland and Saint Peter’s Bashir Mason are both 40 and were born on Feb. 11, 1984. What are the chances?! The oldest: Washington State’s Kyle Smith (54).

Kyle Smith has Wazzu in the NCAAs for the first time in 16 years. Getty Images
29: It has been 29 years since a No. 6 seed made the Final Four. Who was it? Chris Webber and the Fab Five at Michigan. The highest-rated No. 6 seed per KenPom is BYU (16th).

14: Of 68 schools dancing, 14 have won a national title: North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, UConn, Kansas, Michigan State, Arizona, Baylor, Marquette, Virginia, NC State. Florida, Oregon and Wisconsin.

5: The only top-eight seed yet to win a national title is a No. 5 seed. Go ahead, end the streak, Wisconsin, Saint Mary’s, San Diego State or Gonzaga.

38 for 38 in 16: The ACC, which got five teams in, is hoping to continue a proud trend. The conference has never failed to get at least one team into the Sweet 16 since the field expanded in 1985.

+.152: South Carolina rates as the “luckiest” team in the field, per KenPom. In the past 20 NCAA Tournaments, the luckiest team in the field lost its first game 17 times. The unluckiest team this year: Michigan State.

1 or 2 to the Four? Not if unranked: There has never been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed that started the season unranked to go on and make the Final Four. Top-two seed in this year’s bracket that was unranked at the start: Iowa State.

20+: There have been four 20-point upsets against the spread in the NCAA Tournament since 1985: No. 15 Santa Clara (+20) over No. 2 Arizona in 1993; No. 15 Norfolk State (+21.5) over No. 2 Missouri in 2012; No. 16 UMBC (+20.5) over No. 1 Virginia in 2018; and No. 16 FDU (+23) over No. 1 Purdue. Long Beach State, Wagner, Saint Peter’s, Stetson and Longwood are all +20 or more.

28/25: Tennessee coach Rick Barnes will be making his 28th appearance in the NCAAs. He’s 27-27 all time. Tennessee as a program has been here two fewer times: 26.

11?: Marquette and Kentucky have met 10 times in the NCAAs, the most common clash in tournament history. If they make it out of the first weekend, matchup No. 11 will happen in the Sweet 16 — just as it would have happened last year if Marquette hadn’t lost in the second round. Why does this keep happening!

2,205: The distance as the crow flies from Yale’s campus to Spokane Arena, giving the Bulldogs, the longest trip by that measure — but only five miles longer than Charleston’s 2,200-mile trip to the same destination. A lot of teams have long trips, though, including all three from Alabama (Alabama, Auburn, UAB) traveling to Spokane, Washington.

69.7%: South Carolina and Iowa State have the best cover percentage of all NCAA Tournament teams at 69.7%. New Mexico and Nevada are right behind this season, followed by UConn and Saint Peter’s. Virginia’s 37.5% ATS number is the worst in the field.

14: A No. 14 has beaten a No. 3 in five of the past 10 tournaments. Kennesaw State almost did it last year. This doesn’t feel like a year where it’s going to happen … which means …

13: James Madison’s 13-game winning streak is longest heading into the Dance.

40-13/.755: Kansas has the best NCAA Tournament record/win percentage since 2008 (minimum of six games played) in the field. That will be tested this year due to not having Kevin McCullar Jr. available.

2: The number of teams making an NCAA tourney debut. Welcome to the club, Stetson and Grambling State!

1 for 41: The Northeast Conference UNTIL LAST SEASON was the only league that had never won a first round NCAA Tournament game. Look at what my dumb butt wrote a year ago: “Fairleigh Dickinson has to beat Texas Southern and THEN Purdue to end the drought. Yeah … that’s not happening.” STUPID. Wagner just won on Tuesday … you don’t think …

34: Most consecutive NCAA tourneys: Kansas (34), Michigan State (26), Gonzaga (25). No one else is in double digits. Kansas’ Bill Self, absurdly, is coaching his 23rd straight NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed or better.

18: Combined national championships for programs in the South Region, the most of the four regions. The schools: Kentucky (8), Duke (5), Florida (2), Marquette (1), NC State (2).

Jaedon LeDee has turned into a top-10 player for SDSU after being a role guy last season. USATSI
20 or better: Six of the top 20 teams in the East Region are ranked 16th or better at KenPom. UConn (1), Auburn (4), Iowa State (6), Illinois (10), BYU (16), San Diego State (20).

10: School in this NCAA Tournament with the most appearances to never win a game: Boise State (10).

14-over-3 = bad for Big 12: The past four times a No. 3 seed has been upset by a No. 14 seed, all those games had Big 12 teams on the losing end. This year, Baylor is on the 3-line. (H/T ESPN)

51: A No. 12 seed has won 51 first-round games since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The ’88, ’00, ’07, ’15, ’18 and ’23 tournaments are the only ones since the field expanded to not have a No. 12 seed win. In the past 14 tournaments they are 22-34 vs. No. 5s. Don’t overlook No. 11s, though. That’s still a real upset, and in the last seven tournaments, No. 11s are 15-13 vs. the No. 6s. The most popular No. 12-over-5 pick at CBSSports.com/on the CBS Sports app: James Madison over Wisconsin (31.3%).

.774: Michigan State coach Tom Izzo’s winning percentage in the second round and Elite Eight. He is 24-7 in those games (i.e., on a two-day turnaround). Should Michigan State get past Mississippi State, it would potentially face No. 1 North Carolina. Izzo is 3-5 vs. UNC.

25-18: Since seeding the field began, No. 1 seeds have more national titles (25) than the rest of the seeds combined (18).

10-15: Pick at least one double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16, because it has happened all but two years since ’85 (1995, 2007). And 16 times there have been at least three double-digit seeds that made it to the regional semifinals. In 2021 and 2022, we had four: Oral Roberts, Oregon State, Syracuse and UCLA; Saint Peter’s, Iowa State, Miami and Michigan. Last year, No. 15 seed Princeton. Challenge yourself in your bracket picks. It’s going to happen again.

7: Since 1980, there have been seven reigning champions that have made the Final Four the next tournament. It hasn’t happened since Florida in 2007, which went a step further and repeated as champs. With UConn as a No. 1 overall, it’s got a fair shot to end the drought … but it is in the toughest region.

11 for 12: There have been 11 NCAA Tournaments since the First Four’s format was introduced. In 11 of those 12 tournaments, a First Four team has won at least two games. VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021) went to the Final Four. Last year it was Pitt. Who’s pushing through in ’23?

+400: UConn’s odds to win the whole thing. The Huskies are a wagon. Can they make history and go back-to-back? Happy bracketing!

It’s been 48 years since Indiana completed the last perfect season in college basketball in 1975-76. The Hoosiers, led by Bob Knight, were about as good as it gets. Of their 32 wins, 21 came by double digits. They beat the reigning FIBA World Championship-winning Soviet Union team by 16 in a preseason exhibition and followed that up by pounding reigning NCAA Tournament champion UCLA by 20 in the season opener. They won the NCAA title game vs. Michigan by 18.

The record may have been perfect, but the team wasn’t. Just like every team, it had flaws. Unlike any other team since, though, those flaws never cost them a game.

Fast-forward to this year, and even though a top three of UConn, Houston and Purdue seems to have emerged, all three have their warts — the things that can be exposed in any given game and send them home. It’s the nature of the beast. Championships come down to which teams can hide or overcome their flaws best.

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So, what fatal flaw could cost the top contenders for this year’s title? And which teams, exactly, could take advantage of those weaknesses? Here’s where you’ll want to be extra mindful when picking those top seeds.

Note: All specific play type and per-possession numbers via Synergy Sports

UConn: No. 1 seed in East
Potential fatal flaw: 3-point defense

When a team goes 31-3, has the nation’s best offense and top-dozen defense, terrific shooting, ample depth and championship experience up and down the roster and at head coach, it’s hard to find a real “fatal flaw.” I searched hard.

The Huskies, of course, aren’t perfect. One thing that could be worrisome is 3-point defense. The Huskies allow 32% shooting from deep, 82nd in the country. That’s still a really good number! But it’s basically the only major category where they’re not in the top 50. When looking at UConn’s losses, Creighton hit 14 of 28 from deep, Seton Hall three of eight, and Kansas — an awful shooting team — nine of 14. Furthermore, UConn ranks in the fifth percentile defending spot-up possessions, but they are terrific at not allowing many of those opportunities

Every once in a while, you run into a hot team. In a single-elimination tournament, that’s scary. But that’s the beauty of the tournament.

Teams that could take advantage:

Second round: (9) Florida Atlantic produced the 12th-best offensive shot quality in D-I, per shotquality.com, and shot 36% on 3-pointers.
Beyond: (3) Illinois has scored 704 points on spot-up possessions, 51st in Division I, and has an outstanding offense overall.
Get every pick, every play, every upset and fill out your bracket with our help! Visit SportsLine now to see which teams will make and break your bracket, and see who will cut down the nets, all from the model that beat over 92% of CBS Sports brackets players three of the last five years.

Houston: No. 1 seed in South
Potential fatal flaw: Shooting

Houston is exactly who it is seemingly every year. The Cougars have a great, experienced guard (or two, or three), play hellacious defense and crash the glass like their lives depend on it. Which, in the NCAA Tournament, it does.

This Houston team, though, can’t shoot. Like really can’t shoot. The Cougars’ effective field goal percentage, which adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more than 2-pointers, is 49.7%. That’s 229th in the nation. Houston still managed a top-20 offensive efficiency because they get so many extra opportunities, but even those putbacks haven’t been as productive as they once were. At 1.114 points per putback possession, the Cougars ranked 174th in the nation.

No one will keep Kelvin Sampson’s team off the offensive boards entirely. When there are so many misses, there are offensive rebounding opportunities. What teams need to do, rather, is limit second chances as well as possible and stand firm when the Cougars do get them.

Teams that could take advantage:

Second round: (9) Texas A&M had the top rebounding rate both offensively (39.1%) and defensively (72.2%) in SEC play.
Beyond: (12) James Madison had the top rebounding rate in Sun Belt play (75.5%) and is excellent defending the pick and roll (eighth in the country in points per possession allowed), the Cougars’ most oft-used play.
Purdue: No. 1 seed in Midwest
Potential fatal flaw: Off-ball defending

In 2019, one year after losing to a No. 16 seed, Virginia lost in the semifinals of its conference tournament, raising doubts about its March abilities. The Cavaliers then won it all.

In 2024, one year after losing to a No. 16 seed, Purdue lost in the semifinals of its conference tournament, raising doubts about its March abilities. Will the Boilermakers complete the redemption arc?

Purdue’s offense is awesome: fourth in the country in efficiency. Throwing it into the post and letting Zach Edey work may be an anomaly among more modern-day attacks, but Edey is so efficient that he makes up for it and then some. Purdue also shoots 41% from 3-point range, second-best in the country. It’s a ruthless inside-out attack.

But while the defense is very good, it isn’t great. The Boilermakers force very few turnovers, and perimeter defense is a major worry, as they tend to lose cutters. They allowed 1.247 points per possession on these plays, tied for 288th nationally. Ohio State took full advantage when it upset the Boilermakers in late February.

Teams that could take advantage:

Second round: (8) Utah State scores 9.5 points per game on cuts, 42nd in Division I, and its turnover woes would be minimized against a team that doesn’t press the issue.
Beyond: (5) Gonzaga scores 1.342 point per possession on cuts, 22nd in Division I, and in Graham Ike, the Bulldogs have a strong, experienced interior presence who can at least try to disrupt Edey.
West: North Carolina
Potential fatal flaw: Shooting and efficient shot selection

It may seem strange to give North Carolina a similar potential fatal flaw to Houston. The Tar Heels aren’t nearly as bad shooting as the Cougars, but they’re still not great: 145th nationally in effective field goal percentage. They’re fine outside the arc — 35% is solid if not spectacular — but not great inside the arc at just 50% (174th in D-I). Furthermore, the Tar Heels take a lot of inefficient shots: they were 242nd in shotquality.com’s rim & 3 rate.

So how does that translate to a potential fatal flaw? First, the Tar Heels want to be able to run and create easy and efficient looks, something RJ Davis has done very well this season. Second, they want to avoid good rebounding teams who can neutralize the Tar Heels’ strength on the offensive glass (33% offensive rebounding rate in ACC play, best in the conference).

Teams that could take advantage:

Second round: (9) Michigan State allowed the fewest transition points in the country (220) and owns a top-10 defensive efficiency.
Beyond: (5) Saint Mary’s allowed the third-fewest transition points in the country (241), plays at the nation’s fifth-slowest pace and is an elite rebounding team (third in offensive rebounding rate, second in defensive rebounding rate).

The chance to play Midwest No. 1 seed Purdue and big man Zach Edey will be on the line when the Montana State Bobcats and Grambling State Tigers collide in a 2024 First Four game on Wednesday at the University of Dayton Arena in Dayton, Ohio. Both the Bobcats and Tigers are looking to earn the first NCAA Tournament win in program history. Montana State (23-11) earned the Big Sky’s automatic berth after sweeping through the conference tournament as the No. 5 seed. Meanwhile Grambling (20-14) won both the regular season and tournament titles in the SWAC.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The Bobcats are favored by 4.5 points in the latest Montana State vs. Grambling State odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 134.5. Before making any Grambling State vs. Montana State picks or First Four predictions, you need to check out the college basketball analysis from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Div. I college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters the 2024 NCAA tournament on a 148-106 roll on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to last season, returning more than $1,700 for $100 players. It also has a strong 29-19 (+810) record on top-rated spread picks this season. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Montana State vs. Grambling State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Grambling State vs. Montana State:

Montana State vs. Grambling State spread: Bobcats -4.5
Montana State vs. Grambling State over/under: 134.5 points
Montana State vs. Grambling State money line: Bobcats -218, Tigers +178
MT ST: Bobcats rank 32nd in the country in 3-point field goal percentage (36.7)
GRAMB: Tigers rank second in the SWAC in scoring defense (69.0 points per game)
Montana State vs. Grambling State picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why Montana State can cover
Montana State has been excellent at forcing turnovers all season. Led by Big Sky Defensive Player of the Year Robert Ford III, the Bobcats have 280 steals this season — the third most in a season in program history. They also led the conference in both steals per game (8.2) and turnovers forced per game (13.6).

In addition, Tyler Patterson enters Wednesday’s game hot from behind the 3-point arc. The 6-foot-8 junior guard from Snoqualmie, Wash., is 13-for-30 (43.3%) on 3-pointers over his last five games. He is just the fourth player in program history to reach 200 3-pointers in his career. See whom to back at SportsLine.

Why Grambling State can cover
Grambling is a balanced-scoring team offensively. The Tigers have six players averaging at least 7.6 points a game, led by all-SWAC first team guard Kintavious Dozier, who scores 13.1 points per game. Dozier, a junior college transfer, gets almost half of his shots around the rim and averages 1.05 points per shot around the rim.

In addition, Tra’Michael Moton is playing the best basketball of his career. The fifth-year guard from Shreveport, La., is averaging a career-high 11.8 points a game thanks to a career-best 37.1% shooting on 3-pointers. Two games ago, in the SWAC Tournament semifinal win over Bethune-Cookman, Moton scored a career-high-tying 26 points on 6-of-7 shooting from beyond the arc. See whom to back at SportsLine.

How to make Montana State vs. Grambling State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 141 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can see the picks only at SportsLine.

The Miami Heat’s physical 106-95 win over New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night spilled out of control early in the fourth quarter after a hard foul on Zion Williamson. The ensuing scrap between the two teams saw four different players ejected: Jimmy Butler and Thomas Bryant for the Heat, and Naji Marshall and Jose Alvarado for the Pelicans.

“I just know dudes started scrapping and I had to protect my teammates,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “That’s what it boiled down to. Obviously, you get ejected if you leave the bench, so I tried to stay on the sideline and run from sideline to sideline to see if I could help my teammates. But those scuffles happen, it’s part of basketball. We compete, we gonna have blow-ups like that.”

Less than a minute into the fourth, Williamson thought he was fouled on a drive to the basket and got up frustrated. He channelled those emotions into immediately stealing the ball back from Butler. As he went to the rim again, he was wrapped up by Kevin Love and was sent to the deck. The hard foul enraged Williamson’s teammates, who came rushing in to defend him.

Getting chippy in NOLA 👀@PelicansNBA | #Pelicans | @BallySports 📺 pic.twitter.com/vdc4Cvymz6

— Bally Sports New Orleans (@BallySportsNO) February 24, 2024
Marshall was the first on the scene and gave Love a little bump before engaging with Butler. As Butler tried to push Marshall away, the Pelicans forward reacted strongly and grabbed Butler by the neck with a chokehold. That set off Butler, who tried to chase Marshall down as players, coaches and security staff separated the pair.

Here’s an alternate view:

Naji Marshall was choking Jimmy Butler 😳 pic.twitter.com/GinMjlSZ29

— Ahn Fire Digital (@AhnFireDigital) February 24, 2024
Just when it seemed like things were settling down, Bryant went after Alvarado by the scorer’s table. Bryant appeared to throw multiple punches, which set off another scrum as personnel from both teams arrived on the scene. It’s unclear why those two got into it.

Here’s another angle:

Jose and Thomas Bryant get into it. Jose even tried to climb the scorers table pic.twitter.com/blMgQGR2lT

— Pelicans Film Room (@PelsFilmRoom) February 24, 2024
Once everyone calmed down and returned to their respective benches, the referees initiated a lengthy review at the monitor. They decided that the foul on Love would remain a common foul, while all four of Butler, Bryant, Marshall and Alvarado were given double technicals and kicked out of the game.

“Butler and Marshall engaged in physical contact which escalates the altercation,” crew chief Curtis Blair said in the pool report after the game. “Alvarado and Bryant engaged in a physical altercation that continued the altercation. We did not see them leave [their benches], but it is not our decision. It is up to the league office to determine if they left their respective benches.”

Off the court, the fans were getting involved as well. A video from the stands showed a fan in a CJ McCollum jersey throwing objects at players during the Bryant-Alvarado action. Meanwhile, on the Pelicans’ broadcast, a Heat fan in a Dwyane Wade shirt was escorted from his seat.

“I thought it was two competitive teams that want to win, and sometimes you’re gonna have things like that happen,” Pelicans head coach Willie Green said. “No big deal.”

Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr has agreed to a two-year, $35 million extension, according to Adrian Wojnarowski. The new deal will make Kerr the highest-paid head coach in the league with an annual salary of $17.5 million.

Gregg Popovich makes more than this on an annual basis, but he is also the San Antonio Spurs’ president. Erik Spoelstra, who signed an eight-year extension earlier this season with the Miami Heat, is the league’s second-highest paid coach $15M per year.

Kerr’s deal comes as the Warriors continue to cling tightly to their championship core. Stephen Curry is locked in with Golden State through 2026 as part of the four-year, $215M extension he signed in the summer of 2021, which made him the first player in history to sign two $200M contracts in his career. Draymond Green is in the first year of the four-year. $100M deal he signed this past summer.

The only question mark is Klay Thompson, who is set to become a free agent this summer. The Warriors opted not to trade Thompson, who was recently removed from the starting lineup as his production has fallen off considerably, at the deadline, and would likely be open to bringing him back. But it would most likely have to be at a salary that would be less than he could get elsewhere.

Joe Lacob has, the Warriors’ majority owner, said he wants to avoid the luxury tax, which will take some fat trimming to pull off. But he clearly signed off on paying Kerr, who was so instrumental in lifting the Warriors to a championship level following the firing of Mark Jackson, who led Golden State to 51 wins in his final season in 2013-14.

The very next season, Kerr, with largely the same roster, led Golden State to 67 wins and the franchise’s first championship since 1975. In 2015-16, the Warriors won an NBA record 73 games before falling to LeBron James and the Cavaliers in an epic seven-game Finals. All told, Kerr has led the Warriors to six Finals appearances and four championships, with the most recent coming in 2022.

Kerr fundamentally changed the Warriors when he instituted an offense predicated on ball and player movement, leaning heavily into playing Curry off ball — a stark departure from the matchup-obsessed system Jackson preferred that never yielded a top-10 offense.

He has had his work cut out for him the past few seasons as the Warriors are suddenly having to find ways to stay competitive without nearly the talent advantage they’ve long enjoyed. Kerr has had mixed results in developing young players.

James Wiseman was a flop. Jordan Poole, in hindsight, played the best basketball of his career under Kerr. Moses Moody has never gotten a consistent opportunity. Jonathan Kuminga is looking like the golden star of Kerr’s developmental resume, and even he had to wait longer than most people thought he should have to become a Warriors regular.

While not the team they once were, the Warriors are still a threat. They pulled a first-round upset over the Kings last season, and they’re heating up for the stretch run this season having won nine of their last 11 games entering play on Friday.

The Detroit Pistons (8-47) will try to snap their four-game losing streak when they face the Orlando Magic (31-25) on Saturday night. Detroit opened its six-game road trip with back-to-back wins, but it lost the final four games to remain in last place in the Eastern Conference. Orlando has won four of its last five games, including a 116-109 win at Cleveland on Thursday. The Magic are tied with the Heat atop the Southeast Division standings and are a half-game back of Indiana for sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

Tipoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Saturday at Little Caesars Arena. Orlando is favorite by 7.5 points in the latest Pistons vs. Magic odds, while the over/under is 225.5 points, per SportsLine consensus. Before entering any Magic vs. Pistons picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 60-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Magic vs. Pistons. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

Pistons vs. Magic spread: Magic -7.5
Pistons vs. Magic over/under: 225.5 points
Pistons vs. Magic money line: Pistons +240, Magic -300
Pistons vs. Magic picks: See picks here
Why the Pistons can cover
Detroit opened its six-game road trip with a pair of upset wins, starting with a 133-120 win at Sacramento as a 14-point underdog. Shooting guard Jaden Ivey scored a career-high 37 points, with 19 of them coming in the fourth quarter. The Pistons added a 128-122 win at Portland as 7.5-point underdogs in their following game, as center Jalen Duren finished with 27 points and 22 rebounds.

They will be excited to return home for their first game at Little Caesars Arena in three weeks, while Orlando is on the road for the second time in three days. Detroit is 12-3 in its last 15 home games against Orlando, and it has covered the spread in 12 of its last 17 games overall. Shooting guard Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons with 22.1 points, 7.5 assists and 4.1 rebounds per game.

Why the Magic can cover
Orlando has won seven of its last nine games, including a 111-99 win at Detroit three weeks ago. Franz Wagner scored 27 of his career-high 38 points in the second half of that game, shooting 17 of 25 from the floor and 4 of 7 from 3-point range. Power forward Paolo Banchero had 20 points, seven assists and six rebounds, while center Moe Wagner added 10 points and five rebounds.

The Magic closed the first half of the season with a 118-100 win over the Knicks, and they returned from the All-Star Break with a 116-109 win at Cleveland on Thursday. They were 8.5-point road underdogs against the Cavaliers, but Moe Wagner scored 22 points to lead Orlando. The Magic have covered the spread in nine of their last 11 games, including five of their last six road games. See which team to pick here.

How to make Pistons vs. Magic picks
The model has simulated Magic vs. Pistons 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will face off against the Brooklyn Nets at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday at Target Center. Minnesota is 39-17 overall and 19-6 at home, while Brooklyn is 21-34 overall and 8-17 on the road. Rudy Gobert (ankle) is considered day-to-day for Minnesota. The Timberwolves edged the Nets 96-94 in Brooklyn on Jan. 25, but the Nets (+3.5) got the cover in that matchup.

This time around, the Timberwolves are favored by 8 points in the Timberwolves vs. Nets odds via SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 217.5 points. Before entering any Timberwolves vs. Nets picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 18 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 60-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,300. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

The model has set its sights on Nets vs. Timberwolves. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for the game:

Timberwolves vs. Nets spread: Timberwolves -8
Timberwolves vs. Nets over/under: 217.5 points
Timberwolves vs. Nets money line: Timberwolves -340, Nets +265
Timberwolves vs. Nets picks: See picks here
What you need to know about the Timberwolves
After a string of four straight wins, the Timberwolves ran out of steam on Friday, falling to Milwaukee 112-107. Anthony Edwards had 28 points, nine rebounds and five assists in the loss. However, he shot just 10 of 27 from the field and turned it over three times, so he’ll be looking for a more efficient outing on Saturday.

Despite that setback, Minnesota is still tied with the Thunder atop the NBA Western Conference standings. Minnesota is 29-24-3 ATS overall this season with a 13-11-1 ATS mark at home and a 22-19-3 ATS record when favored. See who to back here.

What you need to know about the Nets
Meanwhile, the Nets dropped their third straight game on Thursday, suffering a 121-93 defeat to Toronto. The Nets struggled from 3-point territory, shooting just 29.7% from deep as they lost the debut of interim head coach Kevin Ollie.

Ollie takes over a squad that is still in playoff contention, but also needing to play much better after dropping six of the last seven. The Nets are under .500 ATS for the season at 24-28-3 overall and they’ve especially struggled on the road with a 9-16 ATS mark. See who to back here.

How to make Timberwolves vs. Nets picks
The model has simulated Timberwolves vs. Nets 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a spread pick that hits well over 60% of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The showdown of New York has the Brooklyn Nets (17-25) hosting the New York Knicks (26-17) on Tuesday. The Nets narrowly lead the all-time series 107-104. Despite that, New York has won three straight games over Brooklyn, and on Dec. 20, the Knicks outlasted the Nets 121-102. The Knicks average 115.2 points per game, while the Nets put up 114.2 points per game. Isaiah Hartenstein (Achilles) is questionable for the Knicks.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. The Knicks are a 3.5-point favorite in the latest Knicks vs. Nets odds, per SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 223. Before making any Nets vs. Knicks picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 14 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 48-25 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Knicks vs. Nets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Nets vs. Knicks:

Knicks vs. Nets spread: New York -3.5
Knicks vs. Nets over/under: 223 points
Knicks vs. Nets money line: New York -169, Brooklyn +141
NYK: The Knicks are 16-9 ATS as the favorite this season
BKN: The Nets are 12-6-2 ATS at home this season
Knicks vs. Nets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Knicks can cover
Forward OG Anunoby has made a great impact on the Knicks. Since joining the team on Jan. 1, the Knicks have gone 9-2. Anunoby plays superb defense due to his length and size, constantly making things tough for ball handlers. The Indiana product averages 15.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. In his last contest, Anunoby logged 14 points, seven boards, and three blocks.

Guard Donte DiVincenzo plays with high energy, gets to the rim with no hesitation and thrives in transition due to his speed in open space. The Villanova product averages 11.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. He’s supplied at least 15 points in three of his last four games. In Saturday’s win over the Raptors, DiVincenzo finished with 17 points and three boards. See which team to pick here.

Why the Nets can cover
Forward Mikal Bridges is an athletic playmaker in the frontcourt. Bridges can create his own shot with ease and use his length to be an active defender. The 27-year-old leads the team in points (21.4) to go along with 5.2 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game. He dropped 26 points, six rebounds, and five assists in the loss to the Clippers.

Guard Cam Thomas is an aggressive scoring threat for the Nets. Thomas can hit jumpers on the outside with ease and scores from all three levels. The 22-year-old logs 20.6 points, 2.4 assists, and shoots 35% from downtown. He’s dropped 20-plus points in four of his last five games. On Jan. 19 versus the Lakers, Thomas totaled 33 points and four assists. See which team to pick here.

The Milwaukee Bucks fired rookie head coach Adrian Griffin on Tuesday just 43 games into his tenure. You won’t often see a coach get canned with a 30-13 record, but it goes to show the level of stakes the Bucks have riding on this season.

They don’t have time to fool themselves with a regular-season record. When they traded for Damian Lillard, it became championship or bust. This is not a championship team right now. So they got proactive, making a move based on their heightened standards of performance rather than the general standards that a No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference would typically satisfy.

Give the Bucks credit for that. They could’ve taken what they obviously believe was a bad hire in the first place and made it worse by refusing to admit their mistake. But here’s the problem: If they fire one guy to just make another mistake on the next hire, nothing will have been accomplished.

Doc Rivers sounds like the leading candidate. Hmm. Have you seen how much different, for the better, the Philadelphia 76ers look this season under Nick Nurse? The fascination with big-name retread coaches will never go away, and to be fair, maybe all the Bucks need is someone who’s used to managing superstars — but Rivers isn’t exactly a creative offensive mind, and I would argue that’s what Milwaukee needs most.

Hear me out: While everyone is going to point to Milwaukee’s defensive decline — from fourth a season ago to 22nd this season, in which the Bucks are surrendering almost six more points per 100 possessions — as the reason Griffin is out of a job, to me, that was a conscious roster decision.

Sure, Griffin changed up Mike Budenholzer’s big-drop strategy in the early going, and of late Giannis Antetokounmpo has pointed to a lack of a defensive plan. But by and large, when you flip out Jrue Holiday for Lillard, and start a Lillard-Malik Beasley backcourt, you are going to struggle defensively. If Milwaukee’s front office expected anything different, they set Griffin up to fail.

More likely, the expectation was that the offense would more than make up for that defensive decline, which, in theory, would leave the Bucks on the plus side of such a philosophical shift. It’s true, Milwaukee is scoring basically the same six points more per 100 that they are losing defensively from a year ago, making it look like a wash on paper, but a wash is not what they were after. And besides, numbers can only tell you so much.

Anyone who has watched this team will tell you the Bucks are not getting anything close to the best version of Lillard. That was Griffin’s main job. Maximize Lillard and Giannis, and the rest might not even matter. But Giannis isn’t as natural as everyone hoped he would be as a short-roller, and Lillard has openly admitted he has struggled to play with his typical rhythm without the ball in his hands as much he’s used to.

It’s a tight fit, and Griffin never quite found it. Lillard is shooting 42% from the field and 35% from 3. He’s averaging 25 points per game. Those are acceptable numbers, but nowhere close to the production that most people were expecting. Lillard was supposed to be feasting on defenses that could no longer focus entirely on him. His 51.5 eFG% ranks 26th among point guards, in the vicinity of Russell Westbrook, per Cleaning the Glass.

That’s what needs to change, because the tradeoff the Bucks bet on is simple: Lillard’s offense has to be worth more than Holiday’s defense, especially because Holiday’s offense, while not elite, is far better than Lillard’s defense, which I laid out as a disaster less than a month into the season.

Throw in the fact that Holiday has now taken the Celtics, the Bucks’ chief Eastern rival, to an even higher level, and it only puts even more pressure on Milwaukee to raise their offensive level behind Lillard. That’s the position they willingly, happily, put themselves in from a roster standpoint. It’s not about numbers. It’s about what we’re truly seeing on the court.

This team needs to start humming, not barely getting by against the likes of the Pistons and the Warriors playing without Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Not scoring 95 points in a 40-point loss to the Cavs with Lillard and Khris Middleton combining to shoot 8 for 30. Not losing to the Rockets by managing to score a measly 108 points despite Giannis going for 48.

Lillard was 5 for 16 in that Houston game, including 1 of 8 from 3. He’s shooting 27% from 3 for the month of January.

This just isn’t going to cut it against the backdrop of what should’ve been a predictable defensive decline. Perhaps the defense shouldn’t have fallen off this much, but I’d be careful thinking a new coach is going to fix that side of the ball. The Bucks made their deal with the basketball devil. They’re all in on offense. Have been from the moment they acquired Lillard. Whoever gets this job has to get that part more than right; they have to get it damn near perfect. Because the Bucks’ defense, which, again, I would put more on the front office than the coach, doesn’t allow for any error.

It’s a tough gig. Griffin wasn’t the guy for it. We’ll see if the next person is.

USA Basketball is gearing up for the 2024 Summer Olympics. It announced a 41-man player pool on Tuesday composed of potential members of the final roster, which will be revealed at a later date. Team USA is fired up after an underwhelming performance at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, so the competition could be the fiercest it’s been in a while.

LeBron James and Stephen Curry were among the big-time players who didn’t participate in the last Olympics, but both were included on the list and have voiced interest in suiting up. Other notable names that didn’t play in Tokyo, Japan but could in 2024 include Anthony Davis, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul, Paul George, and Kawhi Leonard.

Then there are the newcomers. Among them is Joel Embiid, who announced his decision to choose America over his native country Cameroon, and France in October. The Philadelphia 76ers star and reigning MVP could help fix Team USA’s glaring weakness in the post, as many of the league’s best centers are now international players. Several younger stars could make their first Olympic USA Basketball appearance with him.

Tyrese Haliburton, Trae Young, Anthony Edwards, De’Aaron Fox, Jaylen Brown, and Brandon Ingram are just a few of the top players with a chance to knock off some of the seasoned veterans. They’ve all notched at least one All-Star appearance, but Team USA is more selective.

Whether USA Basketball can rebound from finishing without a medal at the FIBA World Cup remains to be seen, but the player pool for 2024 appears to be loaded with talent and capable of a return to dominance.